Weekly Options Backtest — Performance Summary & Analysis
| Sell put @ 0.98× price (higher strike) | Collect premium — short leg, theta decay |
| Buy put @ 0.95× price (lower strike) | Pay premium — long leg, defines max loss |
| Net credit received at open | Max profit = credit × 100 × qty |
| Profits when AAPL stays above short put strike | Max loss = (width − credit) × 100 × qty |
| Average winner | +$717 |
| Average loser | $-2,357 |
| Best trade | +$1,838 (2025-04-21) |
| Worst trade | $-7,748 (2025-03-31) |
| Total gross wins | +$23,667 |
| Total gross losses | $-32,992 |
| Metric | Value | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Max profit per trade | $800 avg | Net credit received — defined max gain |
| Max loss per trade | $6,327 avg | Width minus credit — defined max loss |
| Max drawdown | $14,998 | Peak-to-trough cumulative |
| Best single trade | +$1,838 | 2025-04-21 open |
| Worst single trade | $-7,748 | 2025-03-31 open |
Total P&L of $-9,325 over 47 trades. Downside moves in AAPL caused the short put to be tested, resulting in losses that exceeded credits collected.
70.2% win rate is consistent with a net-credit strategy — theta decay and the short Mon–Thu window work in favour of the seller.
Credit spreads typically win frequently but lose large when breached. A payoff ratio below 1.0x is expected — profitability requires the win rate to compensate. Monitor the credit-to-width ratio closely.
AAPL faced macro headwinds (rate uncertainty, AI capex cycle) in 2025. Sharp intraweek pullbacks can push the stock below the 0.98× short put strike, triggering full-width losses despite the overall trend.
All pricing uses Black-Scholes (European) with 20-day trailing historical vol. No commissions, slippage, pin risk, or early-exercise risk are modelled. Actual results will differ.
| Open Date | Close Date | Expiry | S Open | S Close | Short K / Long K | Width | HV% | Net Credit | Close Cost | P&L | Cum P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-06 | 2025-01-10 | 2025-01-10 | $244.31 | $236.76 | 240 / 230 | 10 | 20% | $0.5209 | $3.2341 | $-2,713 | $-2,713 |
| 2025-01-13 | 2025-01-16 | 2025-01-17 | $233.52 | $228.24 | 230 / 220 | 10 | 21% | $0.7089 | $2.3905 | $-1,682 | $-4,395 |
| 2025-01-27 | 2025-01-30 | 2025-01-31 | $224.02 | $237.53 | 220 / 215 | 5 | 27% | $0.7736 | $0.0000 | +$774 | $-3,621 |
| 2025-02-03 | 2025-02-06 | 2025-02-07 | $229.98 | $233.18 | 225 / 220 | 5 | 31% | $0.8060 | $0.0000 | +$806 | $-2,815 |
| 2025-02-10 | 2025-02-13 | 2025-02-14 | $229.58 | $241.49 | 225 / 220 | 5 | 32% | $0.9031 | $0.0000 | +$903 | $-1,912 |
| 2025-02-24 | 2025-02-27 | 2025-02-28 | $244.93 | $237.49 | 240 / 235 | 5 | 27% | $0.7042 | $2.4892 | $-1,785 | $-3,697 |
| 2025-03-03 | 2025-03-06 | 2025-03-07 | $241.80 | $235.35 | 235 / 230 | 5 | 26% | $0.3834 | $0.5856 | $-202 | $-3,899 |
| 2025-03-10 | 2025-03-13 | 2025-03-14 | $235.58 | $209.69 | 230 / 225 | 5 | 27% | $0.5624 | $4.9993 | $-4,437 | $-8,336 |
| 2025-03-17 | 2025-03-20 | 2025-03-21 | $213.31 | $214.13 | 210 / 205 | 5 | 28% | $0.8950 | $0.0410 | +$854 | $-7,482 |
| 2025-03-24 | 2025-03-27 | 2025-03-28 | $221.00 | $223.74 | 215 / 210 | 5 | 30% | $0.5518 | $0.0000 | +$552 | $-6,931 |
| 2025-03-31 | 2025-04-03 | 2025-04-04 | $217.16 | $203.01 | 215 / 205 | 10 | 31% | $1.7215 | $9.4697 | $-7,748 | $-14,679 |
| 2025-04-07 | 2025-04-10 | 2025-04-11 | $177.31 | $190.63 | 175 / 170 | 5 | 50% | $1.5331 | $0.1444 | +$1,389 | $-13,290 |
| 2025-04-14 | 2025-04-17 | 2025-04-21 | $211.44 | $196.89 | 205 / 200 | 5 | 76% | $1.7853 | $3.4927 | $-1,707 | $-14,998 |
| 2025-04-21 | 2025-04-24 | 2025-04-25 | $193.11 | $208.20 | 190 / 185 | 5 | 77% | $1.8502 | $0.0124 | +$1,838 | $-13,160 |
| 2025-04-28 | 2025-05-01 | 2025-05-02 | $210.00 | $213.03 | 205 / 200 | 5 | 78% | $1.7055 | $0.3693 | +$1,336 | $-11,823 |
| 2025-05-05 | 2025-05-08 | 2025-05-09 | $203.09 | $197.45 | 200 / 195 | 5 | 66% | $1.7694 | $2.5344 | $-765 | $-12,588 |
| 2025-05-12 | 2025-05-15 | 2025-05-16 | $210.99 | $211.33 | 205 / 200 | 5 | 38% | $0.7677 | $0.0007 | +$767 | $-11,822 |
| 2025-05-19 | 2025-05-22 | 2025-05-23 | $207.99 | $201.37 | 205 / 200 | 5 | 33% | $1.1212 | $3.4088 | $-2,288 | $-14,109 |
| 2025-06-02 | 2025-06-05 | 2025-06-06 | $200.21 | $200.68 | 195 / 190 | 5 | 31% | $0.5995 | $0.0051 | +$594 | $-13,515 |
| 2025-06-09 | 2025-06-12 | 2025-06-13 | $204.41 | $199.09 | 200 / 195 | 5 | 30% | $0.7059 | $1.1546 | $-449 | $-13,963 |
| 2025-06-16 | 2025-06-20 | 2025-06-20 | $197.31 | $201.03 | 195 / 185 | 10 | 22% | $0.8076 | $0.0000 | +$808 | $-13,156 |
| 2025-06-23 | 2025-06-26 | 2025-06-27 | $201.62 | $201.05 | 200 / 190 | 10 | 22% | $1.1147 | $0.1119 | +$1,003 | $-12,153 |
| 2025-06-30 | 2025-07-03 | 2025-07-07 | $202.02 | $213.50 | 200 / 190 | 10 | 19% | $1.1275 | $0.0000 | +$1,128 | $-11,026 |
| 2025-07-07 | 2025-07-10 | 2025-07-11 | $212.81 | $212.36 | 210 / 200 | 10 | 21% | $0.7285 | $0.0079 | +$721 | $-10,305 |
| 2025-07-14 | 2025-07-17 | 2025-07-18 | $209.94 | $210.13 | 205 / 200 | 5 | 19% | $0.2010 | $0.0000 | +$201 | $-10,104 |
| 2025-07-21 | 2025-07-24 | 2025-07-25 | $212.12 | $213.76 | 210 / 200 | 10 | 15% | $0.4710 | $0.0000 | +$471 | $-9,633 |
| 2025-07-28 | 2025-07-31 | 2025-08-01 | $214.04 | $207.85 | 210 / 205 | 5 | 14% | $0.1463 | $2.1221 | $-1,976 | $-11,609 |
| 2025-08-04 | 2025-08-07 | 2025-08-08 | $204.50 | $220.17 | 200 / 195 | 5 | 14% | $0.0708 | $0.0000 | +$71 | $-11,538 |
| 2025-08-11 | 2025-08-14 | 2025-08-15 | $227.92 | $232.78 | 225 / 215 | 10 | 28% | $1.3854 | $0.0000 | +$1,385 | $-10,152 |
| 2025-08-18 | 2025-08-21 | 2025-08-22 | $231.72 | $224.90 | 225 / 220 | 5 | 29% | $0.4840 | $0.7215 | $-237 | $-10,390 |
| 2025-08-25 | 2025-08-28 | 2025-08-29 | $226.48 | $232.59 | 220 / 215 | 5 | 31% | $0.5442 | $0.0000 | +$544 | $-9,846 |
| 2025-09-08 | 2025-09-11 | 2025-09-12 | $239.36 | $229.99 | 235 / 225 | 10 | 19% | $0.4509 | $4.9778 | $-4,527 | $-14,373 |
| 2025-09-15 | 2025-09-18 | 2025-09-19 | $236.74 | $237.87 | 230 / 225 | 5 | 24% | $0.3031 | $0.0000 | +$303 | $-14,070 |
| 2025-09-22 | 2025-09-25 | 2025-09-26 | $248.34 | $256.91 | 245 / 235 | 10 | 28% | $1.4001 | $0.0000 | +$1,400 | $-12,669 |
| 2025-09-29 | 2025-10-02 | 2025-10-03 | $254.54 | $257.43 | 250 / 240 | 10 | 29% | $1.2245 | $0.0000 | +$1,224 | $-11,445 |
| 2025-10-06 | 2025-10-09 | 2025-10-10 | $257.99 | $254.03 | 255 / 245 | 10 | 26% | $1.4313 | $1.3809 | +$50 | $-11,395 |
| 2025-10-13 | 2025-10-16 | 2025-10-17 | $249.31 | $247.45 | 245 / 235 | 10 | 26% | $0.9724 | $0.0486 | +$924 | $-10,471 |
| 2025-10-20 | 2025-10-23 | 2025-10-24 | $255.96 | $259.59 | 250 / 245 | 5 | 23% | $0.4478 | $0.0000 | +$448 | $-10,023 |
| 2025-10-27 | 2025-10-30 | 2025-10-31 | $264.87 | $271.32 | 260 / 250 | 10 | 24% | $0.8512 | $0.0000 | +$851 | $-9,172 |
| 2025-11-03 | 2025-11-06 | 2025-11-07 | $270.47 | $269.85 | 265 / 255 | 10 | 24% | $0.7648 | $0.0088 | +$756 | $-8,416 |
| 2025-11-10 | 2025-11-13 | 2025-11-14 | $269.13 | $273.05 | 265 / 255 | 10 | 19% | $0.6201 | $0.0000 | +$620 | $-7,796 |
| 2025-11-17 | 2025-11-20 | 2025-11-21 | $268.81 | $266.39 | 265 / 255 | 10 | 16% | $0.4659 | $0.4378 | +$28 | $-7,768 |
| 2025-11-24 | 2025-11-28 | 2025-11-28 | $271.25 | $278.77 | 265 / 260 | 5 | 15% | $0.1106 | $0.0000 | +$111 | $-7,657 |
| 2025-12-01 | 2025-12-04 | 2025-12-05 | $278.05 | $280.68 | 270 / 265 | 5 | 16% | $0.0567 | $0.0000 | +$57 | $-7,600 |
| 2025-12-08 | 2025-12-11 | 2025-12-12 | $278.11 | $278.08 | 275 / 265 | 10 | 17% | $0.7405 | $0.0167 | +$724 | $-6,877 |
| 2025-12-15 | 2025-12-18 | 2025-12-19 | $280.15 | $272.24 | 275 / 265 | 10 | 16% | $0.2971 | $2.7731 | $-2,476 | $-9,353 |
| 2025-12-22 | 2025-12-26 | 2025-12-26 | $272.86 | $273.39 | 265 / 260 | 5 | 14% | $0.0274 | $0.0000 | +$27 | $-9,325 |