Weekly Options Backtest — Performance Summary & Analysis
| Buy call @ 1.02× price (lower strike) | Pay premium — long leg, bullish |
| Sell call @ 1.05× price (higher strike) | Collect premium — caps max profit |
| Net debit paid at open | Max loss = debit × 100 × qty |
| Profits when XLK rises above long call strike | Max profit = (width − debit) × 100 × qty |
| Average winner | +$2,001 |
| Average loser | $-593 |
| Best trade | +$5,039 (2025-11-24) |
| Worst trade | $-1,623 (2025-03-24) |
| Total gross wins | +$30,008 |
| Total gross losses | $-18,989 |
| Metric | Value | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Risk per trade (max) | $703 avg | Net debit paid — defined risk |
| Max profit per trade | $6,956 avg | Width minus debit |
| Max drawdown | $6,557 | Peak-to-trough cumulative |
| Best single trade | +$5,039 | 2025-11-24 open |
| Worst single trade | $-1,623 | 2025-03-24 open |
Total P&L of +$11,019 over 47 trades — the bullish directional bias aligned with XLK's 2025 performance.
Only 31.9% win rate. A payoff ratio of 3.37x must compensate — check whether winners outsize losers sufficiently.
The debit paid is the maximum loss per trade. Multiple losing weeks can erode capital quickly. Directional accuracy is required to generate a profit with this structure.
XLK tracks large-cap tech. Macro sensitivity (rates, AI earnings cycles) can cause sharp intraweek reversals that hurt a Mon–Thu hold window even in a broadly bullish year.
All pricing uses Black-Scholes (European) with 20-day trailing historical vol. No commissions, slippage, pin risk, or early-exercise risk are modelled. Actual results will differ.
| Open Date | Close Date | Expiry | S Open | S Close | Long K / Short K | Width | HV% | Net Debit | Close Value | P&L | Cum P&L |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-06 | 2025-01-10 | 2025-01-10 | $238.38 | $228.75 | 245 / 250 | 5 | 20% | $0.2365 | $0.0000 | $-236 | $-236 |
| 2025-01-13 | 2025-01-16 | 2025-01-17 | $225.25 | $230.50 | 230 / 235 | 5 | 22% | $0.4534 | $0.8702 | +$417 | +$180 |
| 2025-01-27 | 2025-01-30 | 2025-01-31 | $228.60 | $232.03 | 235 / 240 | 5 | 27% | $0.4692 | $0.0245 | $-445 | $-264 |
| 2025-02-03 | 2025-02-06 | 2025-02-07 | $225.85 | $234.84 | 230 / 235 | 5 | 29% | $0.8615 | $4.2359 | +$3,374 | +$3,110 |
| 2025-02-10 | 2025-02-13 | 2025-02-14 | $234.75 | $239.17 | 240 / 245 | 5 | 27% | $0.6628 | $0.3532 | $-310 | +$2,800 |
| 2025-02-24 | 2025-02-27 | 2025-02-28 | $235.56 | $222.53 | 240 / 245 | 5 | 27% | $0.7840 | $0.0002 | $-784 | +$2,017 |
| 2025-03-03 | 2025-03-06 | 2025-03-07 | $226.92 | $215.35 | 230 / 240 | 10 | 25% | $1.1690 | $0.0000 | $-1,169 | +$848 |
| 2025-03-10 | 2025-03-13 | 2025-03-14 | $214.13 | $207.79 | 220 / 225 | 5 | 30% | $0.5773 | $0.0000 | $-577 | +$270 |
| 2025-03-17 | 2025-03-20 | 2025-03-21 | $213.68 | $213.36 | 220 / 225 | 5 | 32% | $0.5932 | $0.0003 | $-593 | $-323 |
| 2025-03-24 | 2025-03-27 | 2025-03-28 | $217.10 | $211.44 | 220 / 230 | 10 | 32% | $1.6228 | $0.0000 | $-1,623 | $-1,945 |
| 2025-03-31 | 2025-04-03 | 2025-04-04 | $202.82 | $195.15 | 205 / 215 | 10 | 29% | $1.5017 | $0.0002 | $-1,501 | $-3,447 |
| 2025-04-07 | 2025-04-10 | 2025-04-11 | $174.91 | $194.49 | 180 / 185 | 5 | 40% | $0.7971 | $4.7567 | +$3,960 | +$513 |
| 2025-04-14 | 2025-04-17 | 2025-04-21 | $204.50 | $192.88 | 210 / 215 | 5 | 62% | $1.5875 | $0.0218 | $-1,566 | $-1,053 |
| 2025-04-21 | 2025-04-24 | 2025-04-25 | $189.87 | $205.42 | 195 / 200 | 5 | 64% | $1.3474 | $4.3544 | +$3,007 | +$1,954 |
| 2025-04-28 | 2025-05-01 | 2025-05-02 | $208.13 | $213.04 | 210 / 220 | 10 | 66% | $3.1307 | $3.5525 | +$422 | +$2,376 |
| 2025-05-05 | 2025-05-08 | 2025-05-09 | $214.73 | $217.79 | 220 / 225 | 5 | 54% | $1.3075 | $0.6093 | $-698 | +$1,678 |
| 2025-05-12 | 2025-05-15 | 2025-05-16 | $226.77 | $234.51 | 230 / 240 | 10 | 30% | $1.4995 | $4.5448 | +$3,045 | +$4,723 |
| 2025-05-19 | 2025-05-22 | 2025-05-23 | $231.50 | $229.25 | 235 / 245 | 10 | 23% | $0.9079 | $0.0000 | $-908 | +$3,815 |
| 2025-06-02 | 2025-06-05 | 2025-06-06 | $230.49 | $236.10 | 235 / 240 | 5 | 22% | $0.5403 | $1.3862 | +$846 | +$4,661 |
| 2025-06-09 | 2025-06-12 | 2025-06-13 | $239.19 | $242.52 | 245 / 250 | 5 | 22% | $0.3735 | $0.0216 | $-352 | +$4,309 |
| 2025-06-16 | 2025-06-20 | 2025-06-20 | $240.86 | $240.59 | 245 / 255 | 10 | 16% | $0.3705 | $0.0000 | $-371 | +$3,939 |
| 2025-06-23 | 2025-06-26 | 2025-06-27 | $240.14 | $251.00 | 245 / 250 | 5 | 15% | $0.1946 | $4.9232 | +$4,729 | +$8,667 |
| 2025-06-30 | 2025-07-03 | 2025-07-07 | $252.97 | $256.98 | 260 / 265 | 5 | 13% | $0.1468 | $0.0406 | $-106 | +$8,561 |
| 2025-07-07 | 2025-07-10 | 2025-07-11 | $255.98 | $256.94 | 260 / 270 | 10 | 14% | $0.3342 | $0.0003 | $-334 | +$8,227 |
| 2025-07-14 | 2025-07-17 | 2025-07-18 | $255.29 | $261.02 | 260 / 270 | 10 | 15% | $0.2410 | $1.1299 | +$889 | +$9,116 |
| 2025-07-21 | 2025-07-24 | 2025-07-25 | $261.15 | $261.33 | 265 / 275 | 10 | 12% | $0.1954 | $0.0000 | $-195 | +$8,921 |
| 2025-07-28 | 2025-07-31 | 2025-08-01 | $262.92 | $262.61 | 270 / 275 | 5 | 11% | $0.0120 | $0.0000 | $-12 | +$8,909 |
| 2025-08-04 | 2025-08-07 | 2025-08-08 | $259.62 | $263.28 | 265 / 275 | 10 | 13% | $0.1218 | $0.0471 | $-75 | +$8,834 |
| 2025-08-11 | 2025-08-14 | 2025-08-15 | $265.93 | $267.80 | 270 / 280 | 10 | 14% | $0.3500 | $0.0058 | $-344 | +$8,490 |
| 2025-08-18 | 2025-08-21 | 2025-08-22 | $265.37 | $258.85 | 270 / 280 | 10 | 15% | $0.3096 | $0.0000 | $-310 | +$8,180 |
| 2025-08-25 | 2025-08-28 | 2025-08-29 | $262.09 | $266.47 | 265 / 275 | 10 | 17% | $0.7599 | $1.5579 | +$798 | +$8,978 |
| 2025-09-08 | 2025-09-11 | 2025-09-12 | $264.33 | $270.93 | 270 / 280 | 10 | 14% | $0.1300 | $1.0491 | +$919 | +$9,897 |
| 2025-09-15 | 2025-09-18 | 2025-09-19 | $271.25 | $276.11 | 275 / 285 | 10 | 14% | $0.4044 | $1.2080 | +$804 | +$10,701 |
| 2025-09-22 | 2025-09-25 | 2025-09-26 | $278.07 | $277.96 | 285 / 290 | 5 | 13% | $0.0587 | $0.0000 | $-59 | +$10,642 |
| 2025-09-29 | 2025-10-02 | 2025-10-03 | $280.50 | $286.30 | 285 / 295 | 10 | 12% | $0.2108 | $1.3695 | +$1,159 | +$11,801 |
| 2025-10-06 | 2025-10-09 | 2025-10-10 | $288.67 | $290.22 | 295 / 305 | 10 | 12% | $0.0749 | $0.0000 | $-75 | +$11,726 |
| 2025-10-13 | 2025-10-16 | 2025-10-17 | $284.81 | $284.60 | 290 / 300 | 10 | 22% | $0.8110 | $0.0018 | $-809 | +$10,917 |
| 2025-10-20 | 2025-10-23 | 2025-10-24 | $286.53 | $289.17 | 290 / 300 | 10 | 22% | $1.2125 | $0.4181 | $-794 | +$10,122 |
| 2025-10-27 | 2025-10-30 | 2025-10-31 | $297.54 | $300.50 | 305 / 310 | 5 | 23% | $0.4551 | $0.0042 | $-451 | +$9,672 |
| 2025-11-03 | 2025-11-06 | 2025-11-07 | $303.65 | $289.02 | 310 / 320 | 10 | 23% | $0.8107 | $0.0000 | $-811 | +$8,861 |
| 2025-11-10 | 2025-11-13 | 2025-11-14 | $293.35 | $286.61 | 300 / 310 | 10 | 21% | $0.5248 | $0.0000 | $-525 | +$8,336 |
| 2025-11-17 | 2025-11-20 | 2025-11-21 | $285.45 | $272.12 | 290 / 300 | 10 | 23% | $1.0388 | $0.0082 | $-1,031 | +$7,305 |
| 2025-11-24 | 2025-11-28 | 2025-11-28 | $275.08 | $286.11 | 280 / 290 | 10 | 25% | $1.0848 | $6.1239 | +$5,039 | +$12,344 |
| 2025-12-01 | 2025-12-04 | 2025-12-05 | $283.42 | $291.01 | 290 / 300 | 10 | 26% | $0.8068 | $1.4083 | +$601 | +$12,946 |
| 2025-12-08 | 2025-12-11 | 2025-12-12 | $147.41 | $148.01 | 150 / 155 | 5 | 24% | $0.5303 | $0.0374 | $-493 | +$12,453 |
| 2025-12-15 | 2025-12-18 | 2025-12-19 | $144.57 | $141.52 | 145 / 150 | 5 | 24% | $1.1650 | $0.0000 | $-1,165 | +$11,288 |
| 2025-12-22 | 2025-12-26 | 2025-12-26 | $145.99 | $146.52 | 150 / 155 | 5 | 24% | $0.2689 | $0.0000 | $-269 | +$11,019 |